The Morgiana - Brave Inca v Iktitaf (AW)

The best race of the Irish season so far in terms of Champion Hurdle clues takes place at Punchestown on Sunday 19th October. The young contender takes on the seasoned champion in what almost certainly has the feel of a heavyweight clash.

Iktitaf, whose last defeat came when apparently injured during a race at Punchestown back in February of this year, has since established himself as a developing star in recent weeks. He has comprehensively defeated the under strength opposition placed in front of him in two runs over hurdles and has also followed the example set by the similarly profiled second season hurdler Detroit City, who landed the Cesarewitch, by taking the Irish equivalent.

Tomorrows race will provide the acid test that Noel Meade undoubtedly knows Iktitaf requires. It must be recognised that this was not the planned engagement for Itkitaf however, and that he is running due to the defection of stable mate Harchibald, who Iktitaf will apparently avoid until Cheltenham in March. Itkitaf was expected to take in the Hattons Grace Hurdle, and in my opinion, Noel Meade’s choice to take that race in is possibly more significant than tomorrows engagement. The Hattons Grace provides a test of stamina and speed, something that is essential for a horse tackling Cheltenham.

When assessing this race you really have to place the emphasis on deciding whether or not you think Iktitaf is firstly good enough and secondly if Brave Inca will be fit enough. The second question in fairly simple to answer, Colm Murphy said, "Brave Inca is in super form and coming along nicely” only a couple of weeks ago. This is a view that he has reaffirmed this week. This is also the race in which Brave Inca made his racecourse reappearance last year, with great success, as he fought off Essex under Tony McCoy. McCoy will of course not be present tomorrow, as he is retained to ride J P McManus’ Clan Royal at Aintree in the feature race of the day, the Becher Chase. Barry Geraghty will be deputising for the unavailable McCoy and is relishing the challenge to ride a horse that he has so often finished behind. I don’t think that Geraghty will be of any inconvenience to the horses’ chances.

Now back to the first question, is Iktitaf good enough? You’d think his trainer knows the time of day with regards where he is in comparison to stable mate Harchibald. Iktitaf shows a good turn of foot in softer conditions, something that he will have in his favour over Brave Inca tomorrow, who has won on heavy in his younger days, but has an apparent preference for a better surface. Iktitaf is race fit, but is he fit for this race? Ask yourself that question as he may have had a few easy races in succession but you’d hate to hear Noel Meade saying to you after the race, we probably rushed him a little when we knew Harchibald wouldn’t run. Bear in mind that this is decent prize money to be turning down with a race fit horse. Twenty thousand Euro is a decent prize for finishing second.

What of the others in the race? Well, I hate to be critical of a reigning Champion Chaser in Newmill and a super mare in Asian Maze, but we can find the chinks in their armour with relative ease in terms of this race. I could be totally wrong but comments Andrew McNamara has made this week suggest that Newmill is coming into this race as a warm up for better chasing engagements later on in the season. Asian Maze is coming into the race probably needing the run, and connections are giving her season a starting point with this race, over a trip that she almost certainly always finds too sharp. Recognise that she has won four times out of four at the course though and has every right to enjoy her return to action should she take her place in the line up, which to be fair is probably in doubt with the ground conditions. The concerns over going can also be unlined for Silent Oscar, a course and distance winner, who will pick up prize money should Asian Maze pull out. I admit that my summing up of their chances is brief and to the point but for me it’s as clear-cut as that.

In assessment of the pace of the race, if she runs, Asian Maze should set out to make all, making the race a true stamina test. This will benefit the other runners and should make for a true run race. With this pacemaker in the race, Newmill, who has been ridden to make all in the past, will probably adopt the other preferred running style in being held up at the back. It may also be a possibility that Andrew McNamara sits Newmill up close to the pace and would be very likely should Asian Maze withdraw. In second I’d expect Brave Inca, whilst in third Paul Carberry will be stalking Brave Inca and assessing Barry Geraghty’s every move, in fourth I’d expect Silent Oscar. I would imagine that Barry Geraghty would aim to quicken the race up as they come into the short straight section after the back straight before the turn for home. Iktitaf, if good enough will be sitting close by tracking every move and coming down the straight I see Brave Inca coming home in front as push comes to shove for Iktitaf who makes a mistake at the vital time.

Brave Inca has answered the questions, he has the form, he doesn’t necessarily have the ground in his favour, but he has the least imponderables to gamble upon and I believe that it is Brave Inca that should be favourite. All credit and all the best to Iktitaf as I would love to see him become another of Irelands great Champion Hurdle prospects, this may just be coming too soon for him however, whilst the experience will be the making of him in the long term.