Saturday, December 02, 2006

Silent Note = Bum Note

Breathing Fire once again proved his dislike for winning when caught close home by Bullhill Flyer, and it's hard to envisage Breathing Fire winning another race if this is anything to go by.

Bullhill Flyer, to his credit had been showing himself in good heart with winning 2 handicap hurdles, and finishing 2nd lto, but he was coming here off a mark in the low 90s, so it's not surprising to see him go off at 33/1.

You Sir tried to make all and was given an easy time up top, but once again folded relatively quickly once coming into the straight, and is certainly one to continue to bet against.

Silent Oscar has previously shown his ability to handle soft conditions, but he seemed to be treading water 2 out, but he did pull hard due to the slack pace on offer, and this may have caused him to empty out realtively well and not go on form a promising position entering the home straight. A return to two miles on better ground should see him return to winning ways, but this was a below par effort .

Winter Festival To Start On A Silent Note

The 2006 Winter Festival gets under way at Fairyhouse, and Harry Rodgers could get his third winner of the year in the Bee Bee Developments Hurdle with Silent Oscar.

Personally it comes as a surprise we can get odds against on a horse who has form as good as this one.

He was hardly fluent in his hurdling in the Grade 2 Lismullen, arguably over a trip further than his optimum, yet was still able to run a well respect 4th, and sandwich horses in the late 130s. And looking at his novice season just reads for further promise too. He beat Kinger Rocks pretty comfortably at Punchestown, and prior to that was running a very good race before being brought down in a race won by Kinger Rocks.

Arc En Ciel will not appreciate the ease in the ground, and Breathing Fire is not the same horse as last season, and until recovering that form is readily overlooked.

You Sir is arguably the danger, yet if you look at the form of Militant, he has 47+ lengths to find on Silent Oscar, and even though I don't expect that form to be taken, and reproduced literally, it's hard to envisage You Sir reproduce last years performances which got him a lofty reputation.

A reproduction of Silent Oscar's defeat of Kinger Rocks, or his run in the Lismullen makes him a stand out bet at odds of 5/4+, as his opposition are hardly of the highest calibre.

Friday, December 01, 2006

18th November – Punchestown Review (AW)

18th November – Punchestown

Going; Hurdles – Soft to Heavy, Chase – Heavy (Times suggest Heavy)

Joe Crowley found Piltown a good opportunity to add to his tally. The field were relatively exposed to the favourite, but there was always the threat for me that one of the unraced runners could be an unknown quantity. This nearly proved to be the case, as Sophist appeared an apparent threat down the home straight, where Piltown’s experience probably just got him through. This was a fairly average race performance, but it would be nice to see the second pick up a little race.

The next race was held on the cross-country course over the middle of the track. It was a good training performance from Ted Walsh to get Never Compromise back into winning ways. These types of races aren’t anything to get carried away with from wise.

Off the track for 664 days, Cadogan showed no lack of fitness to cruise to a simple looking second success over hurdles. He made a really eye catching run that saw him all over the favourite You Sir heading for home, he than ran on to score tidily from stable mate Militant. He should come on from this run, despite being race fit, and he could make up for lost time in the forthcoming months. It was nothing to get really carried away with but it was fairly visually pleasing and the time supported it as being a fair effort.

Purple Shuffle sprang an upset in the novice chase to provide Pat Fahy with a much needed winner. He had raced over a shorter trip last time out and the step back up in distance proved very much to his liking as he fought off Vic Venturi for a narrow victory. Favourite Mattock Ranger was said to have gurgled and ran far below the form that he had shown last time out. The performance was fairly sound but I’d be inclined to think most of this field would be exposed against some of the better novices that are currently around.

Tony Martin had Ross River in great shape for his first run of the season. This is Ross River’s second season with Tony Martin and he really does seem to have found the ability that he has always indicated may be lying within. I personally thought that the winner may be lacking for fitness but this was far from the case as he came through under a really good hold up ride from Davy Russell. Although a ten year old I think the winner has some scope to go on a claim a decent handicap somewhere this season. The form of the race should work out very well. The horse that I fancied, the favourite Some Legend was a big let down but it would probably be worth giving him another try as he appeared to empty out rapidly after making a move that looked. I do wonder whether the winner could ever be considered for the Grand National.

Hotel Hilimar made up for defeat last time out to score pretty easily in the maiden hurdle. The race was by no means hotly contested but it was a fair maiden and the horse could do more than it did. There was little to make me get really carried away with the winner but I’d imagine he is better than the bare performance and they really need to look for a fair novice engagement next time.

The winner of the handicap hurdle was Dolphin Bay. Unraced over hurdles for over a year and stepping into his first handicap, he narrowly defeated The Colt King who also appeared to be appreciating the step into handicap company. Made favourite they clearly thought that the horse was ready to win after being fairly consistent in recent runs on the flat. Barry Geraghty was booked also indicating that they had presumably planned this to go well. Quite where they go next is hard to anticipate, but there were some consistent runners in behind so another win may be on the cards.

16th November – Clonmel Review (AW)

16th November – Clonmel

Going; Heavy (Times support)

She’s Supersonic landed her first handicap hurdle on her second start for Tony Martin. She had run at Cork a month previous and had obviously come on for the run. With Ruby Walsh booked it was clear that they had probably had her fitter. The performance was very reasonable and Tony Martin may be able to get another win or two out of her if she is potentially improved under his care. Premier Hero being back in fourth firms up the idea that this was a fair performance.

Ruby Walsh then took the next aboard the progressive Le Toscan. This was a good performance and the winner found it all too easy to pick them up and cruise clear. His future will almost certainly lie over fences but in the meantime he is clearly an improved performer and one that I will be following closely. A lot will depend upon how they select his engagements, and connections will almost certainly up him in class from now on. Well Run probably showed the level he is at here in terms of ability. The winner held him with relative ease and for the time being I’d imagine the second will be looking for a similar engagement.

Sir Oj put in a really gutsy performance in what turned into a competitive looking finish rounding the home turn. Kill Devil Hill should have possibly put the race to bed, yet the brave winner got back up to deny him on the line. After setting a fairly stready pace for most of the race Sir Oj looked to be struggling on the ground and his jumping also lacked fluency. Kill Devil Hill was making his seasonal debut and looks to be as good, if not better this year. He will almost certainly be well fancied next time out after this.

The next race was all set to be a really great one to watch for me. I’d be toying with backing Gazza’s Girl and Cailin Alainn from the night before. The winner Cailin Alainn I’d been waiting to see again for over a month, whilst Gazza’s had been one that had I’d been similarly excited to follow. As it happened I had a power cut and missed the race totally. Watching it back, Gazza’s was going as well as the rest until putting in a short one, but it’s virtually impossible to know what she would have done at the end of the race. Meanwhile Cailin Alainn, confirmed the nice opinion I had of her and will now tackle the opposite sex after picking up the black type they were aiming for. This was a good performance and on better ground in even better company the winner may provide some value along the line, whilst I will be looking forward to seeing where they go with Gazza’s Girl next time out.

Wearing first time cheekpieces, City Of Sails gained only his second win over hurdles in the handicap race. Quite highly tried, the winner has never been the best of runners to rely on, but this was an improved display whilst the performance was average for the standard of race. I’d imagine a similar race could be on the cards and to be fair, even though far from the most consistent of runners, if the cheekpieces have worked the oracle then connections could have a slightly well handicapped runner on their hands for the time being.

Similar comments can be applied to the winner of the handicap chase, Giolla De, who seemed to be well in and performed accordingly. He too should be unexposed and if the handicapper is not too hard then it’s all about where connections send him. I’d be inclined to keep him to this grade and wrack up a couple more wins, whilst they may step him up slightly in sight of landing a bigger prize whilst possibly still unexposed. Far More Serious must have a race in him when Charlie Swan’s stable is in better form.

Saturday, November 25, 2006

15th November - Downpatrick Review (AW)

15th November – Downpatrick

Going; Soft (Times suggest heavier)

L’Acajou won the maiden hurdle for Edward O’Grady, whose yard is in good form. The winner had run a couple of times already this season and if you don’t know, Downpatrick tends to lend itself to horses that hold themselves close to the pace. This was the tactic employed with the winner, who had run consistently at similar trips recently, and it paid off. I’d imagine the winner would be kept in novice company for the time being. This gives Kazal’s form a boost and again highlights him as a nice prospect for fences. Care And Share went off a worthy favourite and I’d suspect the track was of no advantage to him, he could slip under the radar and turn up as a little bit of value next time out.

Moody Lad won the handicap hurdle and has a similar profile to that of another Philip Rothwell runner that I highlighted recently, Strand Line. Not a lot has been done over hurdles until landing this first handicap success and for a trainer that is quite shrewd it may be worth taking the winner to one side as being slightly unexposed. Don’t be surprised to see a return to Downpatrick before a trip to the sales at Christmas. I’ve picked out a race on the 13th December as a possibility at the venue.

Fresh from the flat after losing to a really top looking jump prospect in Lounaos, Orbit Of Gold made a winning debut over hurdles for ever in form Noel Meade. Meade says that it will depend on the handicapper’s reaction as to where they will be heading next. The performance was pretty useful and I don’t think the handicapper will go that easy on the winner. I’d estimate a rating of around about 110 for the winner.

The winner of the next advertised two other jumpers, Some Legend and Glenfinn Captain, whilst also being a controversial winner, as the first past the post was placed second. Ballfinney has been running consistently and was denied a run by the highly tried The Tricky Bricky. The stewards reversed the placings. The performance was fair, and as I say it gave a boost to those two horses that had beaten the winner.

Renepogel did what I warned he may in a review earlier in the season, and that was to win around a tight track in a weak race. If kept around a similar course further success may be gained but I’d be more inclined to think that the horse will at least run with more merit.

Romek took the beginners chase with a similar front running display. Whilst the performance wasn’t at all something fantastic it provided further support to two other winners in the similar way that Ballyfinney did earlier in the day, with Gazzas Girl and Letterman the horses this time around.

13th November - Limerick Review (AW)

13th November – Limerick

Going; Soft (Times favour good to soft)

The opener saw a cracking display from Financial Reward for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. The winner had been disappointing for Mullins on the flat, and although there are some fair targets lined up in his future, you could tell that Willie Mullins was ever so slightly sceptical over his winners’ performance. He did not beat an exceptional field but the time was good and you can draw what you like from that.

A tough race to weigh up was the next on the card and Lucky Slipper finally gained success after being much tried over hurdles. She is by no means a super star but her performance was not bad. She didn’t beat a great deal and I’d be more inclined to give the form of the race a swerve in the future, as they were an average looking bunch.

Similar comments can be applied to the next. The novices handicap was won by Media Queen who has not done a great deal in the past either. The field were once again very average whilst favourite Genger is a strange performing individual who I believe I highlighted at Tralee in a similar race. There is probably a very poor race in her somewhere along the line but as to when is anyone’s guess.

A much better mare took the next, with Grapevine Sally, putting in a really decent performance to add to her recent Clonmel victory. This victory suggested to me that the going on the day was slightly better than the forecast soft, as the winner had been mentioned to appreciate a better surface. The performance was good and she will no doubt be aimed at more mares races.

The Boxer Roche was running quite a nice race last time out against Le Toscan until probably blowing up and he came on for the run to post a decent performance, in what would have been a much more straight forward engagement in the maiden hurdle. His jumping was far from fluent and this chaser in the making is one for the long term rather than this season on the whole. There will probably be some other future chasers come from this race.

The divided maiden held two very similar performances. Go West’s performance in the first division was probably slightly better than that of Orge D’Ete in taking the second, but you couldn’t separate them by much. The winner of the first was no cheap purchase from the sales and I’d be inclined to think that the horse has some scope about him, whilst Orge D’Ete appears a chasing prospect who relishes a test of stamina.

12th November - Navan Review (AW)

12th November – Navan

Going; Yielding to Soft (Times suggest very soft)

Major Stampi, as expected, came on for the run to land the opener and record a nice performance in the process. It was by no means an easy victory as the consistent La Marianne was out battled. There should be a few winners to come out of the race as it seemed a fair time and there were some fair sorts in the race.

Rosaker put in a really good performance to land the grade 2 hurdle. Emotional Article is a fair yardstick in this company and Rosaker dealt with him soundly enough. Off with injury he returned well fresh and should pay his way this campaign, especially if continuing in this vain of form.

Quality novice Clopf continued to encourage with the manner of his victory in a very nicely contested novice hurdle. The Supreme Novice will more than likely be his target for trainer breeder Edward O’Grady. He has impressed me twice now and continues to win with little effort. Although no world-beater, Noel Meade knows that Aitmatov is no mug, and Clopf has comprehensively beaten him twice now, which encourages me to hold Clopf is a fair amount of regard.

The handicap hurdle wasn’t a bad little race on the card. It was good to see the more consistent runners filling the places, and is a useful form tool for other runners such as Clearwaterdreamer who I have highlighted earlier in the campaign. The winner Odarshaan may take in the Pertemps Qualifier at Newbury and will probably improve again from this winning run. How the handicapper reacts may be more crucial to his further chances, whist The Long Haul cannot run any more consistently without winning.

Nickname is better known over slightly more testing trips but to be fair there was an awful lot to like about his win. Central House was denied in the fight but connections have been running him on the flat in recent weeks and although he was be apparently fit he should continue to gain prize money for those involved. The Hilly Way should be his next target and on this evidence he would prove hard to beat. Nickname will step up in trip and the John Durkan is probably next. Again the same comments can be applied to the winner, as he too will be hard to beat if carrying this form forward after such a good display.

The market told its own story in the beginners chase, as favourite King Johns Castle posted a good display to win. This was a walk in the park for the winner and by no means stunning as a time display, there should be more to come on what was a decent enough start for the winner in a fairly contested race.